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This cookies is set by AppNexus. This cookie is set by Youtube. The domain of this cookie is owned by Dataxu. The increased automated production and inability of the manufacturing sector to boost up the growth has impacted job growth of the country. Inflation: With rising input costs and reduction in the aggregate supply, price of various products and services are increasing.
Poor monsoon has led to a lower area under cultivation. This, in turn, has led to lower output and consequently lesser supply. As aggregate supply is reduced, there is a fall in output and employment and the price level rises.
Steps needed to control stagflation in Indian economy: Tax measures: The best policy measure is to reduce income tax and corporate taxes as they tend to reduce labour costs and raise demand for labour. Similarly, GST should be reduced in order to prevent the price level from rising. To encourage state and local governments to reduce state and local sales, the central government should sanction additional grants-in-aid to them.
Wage control: A policy of wage control should be adopted with government intervention to limit wage rises. When wages rise, firms are forced to reduce production and employment. Consequently, there is a fall in real income and consumer expenditure. Limiting wage increases can break the cycle of wage inflation and help to improve the economic situation.
Supply-side solutions: One solution to stagflation is to increase aggregate supply through supply-side policies, for example, privatisation and deregulation to increase efficiency and reduce costs of production. Private sector must be incentivised to invest more and to increase supply through tax measures. New Zealand economist A. Phillips studied inflation and unemployment data in the United Kingdom from through He found a consistent inverse relationship between rising prices and rising unemployment.
Phillips concluded that periods of low unemployment forced an increase in the price of labor which was passed on to consumers. That is, labor shortages lead to higher costs of living. Conversely, Phillips noted, recessions slowed the rate of wage inflation. These were reflected down the line in the prices paid by consumers.
Prices fell or at least stayed steady. This inverse relationship between the level of unemployment and the rate of inflation was represented in a model that came to be known as the Phillips Curve. Prominent 20th-century Keynesian economists and government policy buffs such as Paul A. Samuelson and Robert M. Solow believed that the Phillips Curve could be used to monitor the trade-off between inflation and unemployment and keep the business cycle in balance.
Nevertheless, the U. The search for a weapon to fight stagflation led in part to the rise of supply-side economic theories as an alternative to Keynesian economics.
Milton Friedman , who had argued during the s that the Phillips Curve was built on faulty assumptions and that stagflation was possible, rose to prominence when events proved him right. Friedman theorized that once people adjusted to higher inflation rates, unemployment would rise again unless the underlying cause of unemployment was addressed. He argued that traditional expansionary policy would lead, in turn, to a permanently increasing inflation rate. He argued that the bank must work to stabilize prices in order to prevent inflation from spinning out of control.
If the government deregulated the economy, he said, the free market would allocate labor towards its most productive uses. Most neoclassical or Austrian views of stagflation, such as those of economist Friedrich Hayek , are similar to Friedman's. Common prescriptions include the ending of expansionary monetary policy and allowing prices to adjust in the free market. Modern-day Keynesian economists such as Paul Krugman argue that stagflation can be understood through supply shocks and that governments must act to correct the supply shock without allowing unemployment to rise too quickly.
The most obvious fixes for stagflation tend to be deeply unpopular in the U. For example, if the price of oil is a key cause of out-of-control prices, privatization or price controls might be imposed. If higher wages are blamed for inflation, the government might limit wage increases. In the absence of any government action, stagflation might correct itself in time. In the s, stagflation was at least partially caused by a sudden surge in the global price of oil, imposed by the oil-producing nations of the Mideast.
Over time, the cost of oil returned to more normal levels and the economy began to emerge from its slump. Federal Reserve Bank of St. History of Economics Review. Federal Reserve History.
American Economic Association.
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